This week the UK government will publish details of its Covid-19 exit roadmap to ease the current lockdown, while allowing us to live with and manage the disease for the foreseeable future.
In doing so, the UK government must balance the huge health costs of this disease against the long-term damage to our economic and social wellbeing, as well as the mounting non-Covid health costs.
Our new paper, the third in a series on sustainable exit strategies from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, considers the components of an effective roadmap, drawing on evidence from countries around the world. We explore what a robust plan should include to help people and businesses manage the inevitable uncertainty and look to the future with some sense of what the new normal will be like.
The best roadmaps offer clarity on:
what will happen at different stages of easing for different kinds of individuals and businesses
when they will move to different stages, based on clearly defined metrics and thresholds
how they plan to contain the spread of the virus and shield the vulnerable
Countries are managing exit from very different places, with some easing lockdown while the outbreak is still widespread and others waiting for the drop in new daily cases. Our report brings together the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies from around the world to inform the development of the UK’s approach.
The UK’s exit roadmap should:
Set out the levels of easing it will use and what they will mean for people.
Build on the five tests the UK has set out with triggers, hard metrics and thresholds to move between levels.
Set out how expanded containment infrastructure and measures can reduce the risk at each level and enable the country to manage future outbreaks.
Have tailored communications to enlist the support of individuals and businesses.