Throughout the Covid-19 crisis, we at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change have been consistent advocates for the use of Covid Passes – digital or analogue health passes that show a person’s vaccination and/or testing status – as vital tools in pandemic management, both domestically and internationally.
However, our initial analysis – conducted mostly in early 2021 while society was still in a cycle of lockdowns and partial reopening – was done before a body Covid Pass evidence from real-world settings and reliable data on vaccine efficacy were available. Using current data and evidence, we have now refreshed our analysis and proposed some models for future use of Covid Passes, should they ever be needed again.
Our headline takeaway is that in the context of a global pandemic, Covid Passes can be a proportionate tool that governments can use to mitigate different types of public-health risk. They are not infallible and will not eliminate transmission, but taking into account all of the trade-offs, they are a useful risk-management tool.
Here, we present our analysis in full: